The desire to study abroad remains one of the most resilient ambitions of learners around the world. Even after years of disruption from the pandemic to geopolitical tensions, students continue to see international education as a pathway to opportunity, mobility, and economic advancement.
But the recently released 2025 Open Doors report shows that while global demand remains strong, where students choose to go is shifting rapidly. As we look ahead to 2026, these indicators offer a clear preview of what is to come.
What the Latest Data Tells Us About 2026
The Open Doors snapshot revealed a 17 percent decline in new international student enrollment in the United States, alongside an increase in students actively exploring alternative destinations. This does not reflect a drop in global ambition. Instead, it signals a redistribution of demand driven by policy changes, affordability, and evolving workforce priorities.
As we move into 2026, these trends will become even more pronounced.
Five Predictions for 2026: The Future of Global Student Mobility
1. Growth Will Shift Toward Emerging Education Hubs
Demand is not decreasing. It is moving. Countries offering clear pathways, competitive costs, and strong post-study opportunities are gaining momentum. Germany, France, Ireland, Spain, Malaysia, Japan, and the UAE will continue to experience growth as students look for stability and value.
Meanwhile, traditional destinations such as the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia will need to address policy barriers to remain competitive.
2. Visa Confidence Will Become the Top Decision Factor
The Open Doors data reinforces what students have voiced for years: visa reliability is as important as academic reputation.
In 2026, students and families will scrutinize:
- visa approval rates
- processing speed
- post-study immigration routes
- dependents policies
- national talent strategies
Destinations that provide consistent and transparent visa systems will attract the next wave of learners.
3. Return on Investment Will Outweigh Rankings
Today’s students are practical and career-driven. In 2026, return on investment will be even more important than institutional prestige. Learners will prioritize:
- affordable tuition and living costs
- strong career and industry linkages
- employment outcomes
- pathways to permanent residency
- safety and quality of life
Families, especially in regions facing currency devaluation, are making highly rational decisions about where education leads after graduation.
4. Programs in AI, Health, Engineering, and Green Skills Will Drive Demand
The next mobility boom will be anchored in fields aligned with global workforce shortages. Students will increasingly seek programs focused on:
- artificial intelligence and data science
- health and public health
- engineering and advanced manufacturing
- renewable energy and sustainability
Destinations that align immigration policy with these talent needs will be especially well positioned.
5. Trusted and Portable Credentials Will Rise in Importance
As mobility patterns shift and policies evolve, students need stable and reliable tools they can trust across borders.
The TOEFL iBT will continue to serve as a globally recognized, valid, and fair measure of academic English proficiency. It is accepted by more than 13,000 institutions worldwide. A strong TOEFL score offers consistent and portable proof of academic readiness, helping students navigate an unpredictable landscape with confidence.
Resilience Will Define the Future
Global student mobility is projected to surpass nine million by 2030, driven by rapidly growing youth populations in South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. Even as policies fluctuate, learners will continue to pursue opportunities across borders through hybrid pathways, multi-destination applications, and programs with strong workforce connections.
The hunger to learn and grow globally is unwavering. What is changing is the map of where that journey unfolds.
At ETS, we remain committed to supporting students wherever opportunity takes them. With trusted tools like the TOEFL iBT, we aim to ensure every learner can pursue education with confidence, opening doors to stronger careers, more inclusive economies, and a more connected world.