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Prediction of First Year Grades at Pomona College GPA SAT

Schultz, Douglas G.
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Bulletin
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
American Council on Education Psychological Examinations, College Entrance Examinations, Grade Point Average (GPA), Grade Prediction, Pomona College, Predictive Validity, Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT)


Both the Scholastic Aptitude Test and the American Council on Education Psychological Examination were found to have satisfactory validity in the prediction of First-Year Grade-Point Average at Pomona College. The verbal sections of both these tests have higher validity than the corresponding mathematical sections. High School Grade-Point Average was also found to have relatively high validity as a predictor. The number of Units of High School Mathematics is, however, not related to average grades in college, although it is correlated with scores on the mathematical sections of the SAT and the ACE examination. An analysis of covariance indicated that the data do not justify treating the men and women as separate groups in developing the regression equation for predicting First-Year Average from these three variables. From the data for the men and women combined, therefore, a regression equation was computed for predicting First-Year College Average from the combination of SAT-V, SAT-M, and High School Grade-Point Average. On the basis of this equation a nomograph was constructed in order to make possible a rapid and easy translation of scores in these predictive variables into estimations of the grade-point averages which students will make in their first year. The coefficient of correlation between grades in English 1 and scores on SAT-V was found to be fairly high (r = .58) in comparison with the probable reliability of the grades as estimated from the intercorrelation of English 1a and 1b. SAT-V is therefore quite satisfactory as a predictor of accomplishment in the introductory English course.

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