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The Predictive Value of Chance-Level Scores

Cliff, Rosemary Hayes
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Bulletin
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
Chance Level Scores, Predictive Measurement, School and College Ability Tests (SCAT), Scores


For the purposes of this study chance-level scores were defined as those at or below the average performance expected of students who respond to each item at random. Data were scores on four regular subtests and the subtests of the equating form of the School and College and Ability Tests. The score distribution of each of the SCAT subtests was divided into chance-level and non-chance-level groups. The linear regression line of equating-form scores on SCAT scores was fitted for each of the eight groups. The regression coefficients were tested for significant deviation from zero. Comparisons were also made of the regression coefficients and standard errors of estimate of the chance-level and non-chance-level groups. Results indicated that scores at or below the average chance score will, under certain conditions, predict performance on an independent measure.

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