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Probability-Based Inference in a Domain of Proportional Reasoning Tasks

Beland, Anne; Mislevy, Robert J.
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Report
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
Office of Naval Research, Bayesian Statistics, Cognitive Measurement, Inferences, Logical Thinking, Probability, Test Theory


Educators and psychologists are increasingly interested in modeling the processes and knowledge structures by which people learn and solve problems. Progress has been made in developing cognitive models in several domains, and in devising observational settings that provide clues about subjects' cognition from this perspective. Less attention has been paid to procedures for inference or decision-making with such information, given that it provides only imperfect information about cognition--in short, test theory for cognitive assessment. This paper describes probability-based inference in this context, and illustrates its application with an example concerning proportional reasoning. (58pp.)

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