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Prediction of Second-Year and Third-Year Grade-Point Averages at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School

Mollenkopf, William G.
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Bulletin
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
Achievement Tests, Aptitude Tests, Grade Prediction, United States Naval Postgraduate School, Predictive Validity


Further validation of the 20 aptitude and achievement tests given in 1948 and of the 12 tests given to the group entering the Postgraduate School in 1949 has been carried out. While the phenomenon of shrinkage in test validities from first to second year previously observed with the 1948 tests also was found with the 1949 tests, the shrinkage was not as great. Also, the validities of 1948 tests against third-year grade-point ratios tended to be somewhat higher than those for the second year. It was concluded on the basis of the findings that tests of advanced mathematics, mathematics aptitude, physics, and engineering are effective for predicting success at the Postgraduate School as judged by all three of the techniques employed for assessing the tests.

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