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A Two Stage Decision Approach to the Selection Problem

Barone, John L.; Boldt, Robert F.; Rock, Donald A.
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Bulletin
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
Cutting Scores, Mathematical Formulas, Selective Admission, Test Validity


A mathematical solution to the two stage selection problem was developed which only requires predictor criterion intercorrelations and selection ratio information. Cutting scores on the first stage test are so determined that some individuals are (a) accepted after the first stage, (b) rejected after the first stage, (c) decision withheld, that is, the decision to accept or reject is postponed until the second stage. The upper and lower cutting scores from stage one, z sub1" respectively, and the cutting score at the second stage z sub2.1 where z sub 2.1=f(zub1); and z sub1' is equal to or less than z sub1 is equal to or less than z sub1" are located such that the expected value on the criterion for accepted applicants is maximized subject to the restraint imposed by the selection ration. Theoretical solutions developed on the computer suggest that considerable amount of testing time may be saved with little or no decrease in the validity of the selection procedure for all values of the selection ratios.

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