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A Bayesian Solution for Some Educational Prediction Problems

Author(s):
Lindley, D. V.
Publication Year:
1969
Report Number:
RB-69-57
Source:
ETS Research Bulletin
Document Type:
Report
Page Count:
26
Subject/Key Words:
Bayesian Statistics, College Admission, Mathematical Formulas, Mathematical Models, Prediction, Statistical Analysis

Abstract

The paper considers a single college selecting students from a variety of high schools. It criticizes the usual statistical analysis and proposes an alternative procedure which uses more efficiently all information that is present in the system. The bulk of the paper consists of a mathematical appendix in which some general theory is developed which, it is expected, will be of value in studying other more complex prediction systems besides the one discussed here.

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