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Long-Term Predictive Validity of Divergent-Thinking Tests: Some Negative Evidence NICHD

Kogan, Nathan; Pankove, Ethel
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Bulletin
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Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
National Institute for Child Health and Human Development (NICHD), Cognitive Processes, Creativity Tests, Elementary School Students, High School Students, Multiple Regression Analysis, Questionnaires, Validity Studies


For two sample of middle class Ss, assessments of divergent thinking performance and intellective aptitude were obtained at 5th and 10th grade. Nonacademic attainments of these Ss were assessed with a biographical questionnaire in the 10th grade and upon graduation. Stepwise multiple regression analysis indicated that 5th-grade ideational productivity had no predictive power in respect to nonacademic attainment at graduation, whereas 10th-grade ideational productivity made a marginally significant contribution to that criterion in one of the school systems. Contrary to expectations, 5th- and 10th-grade intellective-aptitude measures accounted for modest to substantial amounts of the variation in nonacademic attainments. Assessment of such attainments was found to be fairly stable from 10th grade to graduation. Examination of separate fields of nonacademic attainment indicated diverse relationships with cognitive assessments. Implications for creativity research are considered. (28pp.)

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