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Prediction of College Achievement Among Mexican-American Students in California

Warren, Jonathan R.
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Bulletin
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
College Board, California, College Entrance Examinations, Grade Prediction, Grades (Scholastic), Mexican Americans, Minority Groups, Sex Differences


Equations for the prediction of college grades, from test scores and high school grades were compared for MexicanAmerica and other students at three universities of the California State University and Colleges system. With rare exceptions, regression equations for the prediction of grades for Mexican Americans did not differ from those for other students at the freshman, sophomore, or junior level. The prediction of senior year grades did require different equations for Mexican Americans, but the direction of the difference was reversed at the two universities involved. The need for separate prediction equations for Mexican American applicants to college is not supported. Nevertheless, the modest size of the multiple correlation coefficients, usually in the range from .30 to .50, suggests that considerations other than test scores and prior grades should enter admission decisions. The few comparisons across universities did not indicate a need for different equations for different institutions, but a difference in grade distributions at the two institutions compared suggests that the question be examined again with more substantial data. Men and women differed in their prediction equations, although neither sex was consistently over or underpredicted. Men, however, almost invariably showed higher test scores and lower grades at all levels than did women. (Author) (30pp.)

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