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The Graduate Management Admission Test Prediction Bias Study GMAC

Braun, Henry I.; Jones, Douglas H.
Publication Year:
Report Number:
RR-81-25, GMAC-81-04
ETS Research Report
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
Graduate Management Admissions Council, Bayesian Statistics, College Entrance Examinations, Prediction Studies, Racial Differences, Test Bias


This document presents the results of an investigation into the prediction of first-year average in graduate management school based on undergraduate grade point average and GMAT scores. It is found that the use of a single prediction equation for both Black students and White students tends to produce overpredictions of the former's graduate school performance. Substantial effort is devoted to developing a prediction system which takes into account ethnic status. This approach is made practicable by employing the empirical Bayes estimation paradigm, and the new predictions represent a substantial improvement over the ones based on a single equation for both races. (65pp.)

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