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Predicting Predictability: The Influence of Student and Institutional Characteristics on the Prediction of Grades SAT

Baird, Leonard L.
Publication Year:
Report Number:
ETS Research Report
Document Type:
Page Count:
Subject/Key Words:
College Board, College Students, Correlation, Grade Prediction, Institutional Characteristics, Predictive Validity, Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT), Student Characteristics


This study examined the statistical and institutional influences on the prediction of first-year college grades. The sources of information were the Validity Study Services file which summarizes the results of College Board validity studies and the College Handbook file which includes data about college characteristics. The criterion was the size of the multiple correlation between academic predictors and first-year college grades. The independent variables were the statistical data of the validity study and college characteristics. In general it was found, as expected, that the extent of the variation of the academic ability of the students was positively related to the size of the multiple correlation. In addition, several variables suggested the interpretation that the heterogeneity of the programs and experience of college were negatively related to the size of the multiple correlation. Further analyses provided evidence for the influence of institutional characteristics on the prediction of grades, an influence that needs to be taken into account when interpreting the "validity" of tests like the Scholastic Aptitude Test. (Author/PN). (16pp.)

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